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Definition

Futures Bet

Also known as Futures, Ante-Post, Outright

By Reviewed Editorial policy

In short

A futures bet is placed on an outcome that will be decided at the end of a season or tournament, such as a league winner. Your money is tied up for months and the margins are among the highest in sports betting.

A futures bet settles at the conclusion of a competition rather than a single match, the Premier League winner, the Super Bowl champion, the top goalscorer.

The two costs

Margin. Futures markets must price every possible winner, and the overround is spread across all of them. A 20-team league market commonly totals 120% to 140% of implied probability, against 102% to 105% for a single match. You are paying five to ten times the margin.

Dead money. A futures bet placed in August settles in May. That capital is unavailable for nine months and earns nothing. For anyone betting seriously, the opportunity cost is real.

The compensating advantage

Information asymmetry is largest before a season starts. Books must price 20 teams with no current-season data, and their models are working from last year’s results plus transfers. A bettor with a genuine view on a specific team can find prices that would never survive in-season.

This is why sharp futures money concentrates on narrow markets. A specific team’s relegation, a specific player’s award, rather than on outright winners, where the market is most efficient.

Managing a live futures position

Two ways out before settlement:

  • Cash out, if offered. Convenient, and carries its own margin on top of the margin you already paid.
  • Hedging on a betting exchange by laying your selection. Usually better value than cash out, and lets you choose exactly how much to lock in.

A futures bet at 20/1 that shortens to 3/1 by March can be hedged to guarantee profit regardless of the result. Most bettors who hold futures to settlement would have done better trading out.

Terminology

British books say ante-post for bets placed well in advance, particularly in racing, where the key distinction is that ante-post stakes are lost if your selection does not run. Outright is the general term for a competition-winner market.

Common questions

Are futures bets good value?

Rarely at face value. Futures markets carry 20% to 40% margin because every entrant must be priced, and your money is tied up for months earning nothing. The compensating factor is that information asymmetry is largest before a season starts.

Can I cash out a futures bet early?

Usually yes, though cash out adds its own margin on top of the one you already paid. Hedging on a betting exchange by laying your selection is generally better value and lets you choose exactly how much to lock in.

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