Definition
Long Shot
Also known as Longshot, Outsider, Rag
By Abhinav VasudevanReviewed Editorial policy
In short
A long shot is a selection priced at very long odds, reflecting a low estimated chance of winning. Long shots are systematically overbet, which makes them worse value than their prices already suggest.
A long shot is anything priced at big odds. The exact threshold is informal, but 20/1 and upward is the usual territory. In racing they are sometimes called outsiders or rags.
The favourite-longshot bias
This is one of the most consistently documented findings in betting research: bettors systematically overvalue long shots and undervalue favourites.
The pattern holds across decades of horse racing data and across most sports. Backing every favourite loses money slowly. Backing every long shot loses money quickly, often two to three times faster per pound staked.
The mechanism is behavioural rather than mathematical. A 50/1 shot offers a large payout for a small stake, which is an attractive proposition in a way that 1/3 is not. That demand lets bookmakers shorten long prices relative to their true chance and still take the money.
The practical consequence: a 50/1 price frequently represents a true chance closer to 100/1. The margin at the long end of a market is far larger than the headline overround suggests, because it is concentrated there.
Where the bias weakens
Two contexts where long shots are priced more honestly:
- Betting exchanges, where prices are set by matched bettors rather than by a bookmaker with an incentive to exploit demand. Long prices on exchanges are typically far longer than the bookmaker equivalent.
- Liquid two-way markets, where there is enough sharp money to correct mispricing.
The bias is strongest exactly where you would expect: large fields, novelty markets, and outright competition winners, all of which attract recreational money and very little informed money.
Common questions
Are long shots ever good value?
Rarely, because of the favourite-longshot bias. Bettors systematically overvalue big prices, which lets bookmakers shorten them relative to true chance. A 50/1 price often represents a real chance closer to 100/1.
Where are long shots priced more fairly?
On betting exchanges, where prices come from matched bettors rather than a bookmaker exploiting demand. Long prices on exchanges are typically considerably longer than the bookmaker equivalent for the same selection.