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Definition

Favourite (Favorite)

Also known as Favorite, Jolly, Chalk, Market Leader

By Reviewed Editorial policy

In short

The favourite is the selection with the shortest odds in a market, meaning the bookmaker rates it most likely to win. Favourites win roughly a third of horse races and are generally better value than their reputation suggests.

The favourite is simply the shortest price in the market. British racing slang calls it the jolly; American betting calls it chalk, from the days when odds were chalked on a board and the most-backed selection was rewritten most often.

Terminology worth knowing

  • Odds-on favourite: priced below even money, so the market rates it better than a 50% chance.
  • Joint favourites: two selections at the same shortest price.
  • Co-favourites: three or more sharing the shortest price.
  • Clear favourite: meaningfully shorter than the second-favourite.

In American sports the favourite is shown with a minus sign: −7.5 on the spread means giving up 7.5 points, and −250 on the moneyline means risking $250 to win $100.

Favourites are better value than people think

Around 30–35% of horse races are won by the favourite, and in two-way sports markets favourites win far more often than that. Yet backing every favourite still loses money, because the margin is real.

What research consistently shows is that favourites lose money more slowly than longshots, the favourite-longshot bias described under long shot. Recreational money flows toward big prices, which lets books shade short prices closer to fair value.

This does not make backing favourites profitable. It means that if you are going to lose, you will lose less doing it that way, and it means genuine value is more often found at the short end of a market than the long end.

The trap

Favourites attract public money, particularly in high-profile events. Heavy public backing can shorten a favourite past its fair price, especially in televised fixtures and big handicaps.

The useful signal is not whether something is favourite but how it became favourite. A price that shortened on early, quiet money is a different proposition from one that shortened on Saturday-morning volume.

Common questions

How often do favourites win?

Around 30% to 35% of horse races, and far more often in two-way sports markets. Backing every favourite still loses money because of margin, but it loses more slowly than backing long shots does.

Are favourites better value than long shots?

On average yes, because of the favourite-longshot bias. Value is more often found at the short end of a market than the long end. That does not make backing favourites profitable, only less costly.

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