Definition
Point Spread
Also known as Spread, ATS
By Abhinav VasudevanReviewed Editorial policy
In short
A point spread is a handicap applied to level an uneven contest. The favourite must win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it and still cash. Both sides are typically priced at -110.
The point spread turns a mismatch into a roughly even proposition. Instead of adjusting the odds, it adjusts the result.
Reading it
A line of Chiefs −7.5 / Broncos +7.5 means:
- Back the Chiefs and they must win by 8 or more
- Back the Broncos and they must lose by 7 or fewer, or win outright
The Broncos start the bet 7.5 points ahead. The result you are betting on is the adjusted score, not the real one. Betting “against the spread” is abbreviated ATS, and a team’s ATS record is often very different from its win record.
The hook
That trailing .5 is called the hook, and it exists to eliminate ties. With a whole-number spread, a result landing exactly on it is a push, stakes returned, nobody wins.
The hook is more consequential than it looks. In American football, moving from −3 to −3.5 crosses a margin that occurs in about 10% of games. Books know this, which is why they move the price rather than the number around key margins: you will see −3 at −110, then −115, then −120, before the line finally goes to −3.5.
Key numbers
NFL margins cluster heavily because of how scoring works:
| Margin | Approx. frequency |
|---|---|
| 3 | ~15% |
| 7 | ~9% |
| 10 | ~6% |
| 6 | ~6% |
| 4 | ~5% |
Three and seven dominate. A line of −2.5 versus −3.5 is a materially different bet, and buying that half point typically costs 20–25 cents of price. That is expensive, and it is expensive because it is worth it.
Basketball has no such clustering, margins are smoothly distributed, so half points matter far less there.
The pricing
Standard spread markets are −110 both sides, meaning you risk $110 to win $100. That 4.5% vigorish means you need to win 52.38% of your spread bets to break even. Picking winners at 50% loses money steadily; the entire contest is about those 2.4 percentage points.
Common questions
What does -7.5 mean in betting?
The favourite must win by eight or more for the bet to win. The half point exists to prevent a tie. Backing the other side at +7.5 wins if they lose by seven or fewer, or win outright.
Why do spreads sit on 3 and 7 so often?
Because NFL margins cluster heavily on those numbers, with 3 occurring in roughly 15% of games. Books move the price rather than the number around them, which is why -3 drifts from -110 to -120 before it becomes -3.5.
What win rate do I need on spread bets?
52.38% at standard -110 pricing. Picking winners at exactly 50% loses money steadily, and the whole contest is about those 2.4 percentage points between break-even and a coin flip.