Definition
Odds of Winning
Also known as Winning Odds, Chance of Winning, Prize Odds
By Abhinav VasudevanReviewed Editorial policy
In short
The odds of winning state the chance of a ticket winning a prize. The advertised figure counts stake refunds as wins, so the chance of actually gaining money is several times worse than quoted.
Every instant win game publishes odds of winning, typically on the back of the ticket and on the operator’s website. The number is accurate and the framing is not.
What “1 in 3.5” actually means
A game advertising odds of 1 in 3.5 is saying that roughly 29% of tickets win a prize of any size, including a prize equal to the ticket price.
On a typical £2 card, stake refunds are the majority of all winning tickets. Removing them:
| Measure | Typical figure |
|---|---|
| Odds of winning anything | 1 in 3.5 |
| Odds of winning more than the stake | 1 in 9 to 1 in 12 |
| Odds of winning 10x the stake | 1 in 50 to 1 in 200 |
| Odds of the top prize | 1 in 1m to 1 in 10m |
The advertised figure is roughly three times better than the figure describing what people mean by winning.
Why the distinction matters
Getting your £2 back on a £2 ticket is a break-even outcome presented as a win, the same losses-disguised-as-wins pattern that appears in slot hit frequency. The ticket is marked as a winner, the terminal makes a noise, and nothing has changed financially.
This is not deceptive in a legal sense; the prize table is published in full and the refund tier is clearly listed. It is misleading in a practical sense, because almost nobody reads the table and everybody reads the headline.
Calculating it yourself
The published prize tier table gives you what you need. Sum the number of prizes above the ticket price, divide by the print run, and invert.
It takes about a minute and gives you a figure several times worse than the advertised one, which is the honest number.
Against other products
For context, a European roulette even-money bet wins 48.6% of the time, roughly 1 in 2.06, and pays double. Almost any casino game offers a dramatically better chance of a genuine gain than a scratch card does, at a far lower house edge.
Common questions
What does 1 in 3.5 odds on a scratch card mean?
That roughly 29% of tickets win a prize of any size, including a prize equal to the ticket price. The chance of actually gaining money is closer to 1 in 9 or 1 in 12.
How do I calculate the real odds of winning?
Take the published prize table, sum the number of prizes larger than the ticket price, divide by the print run and invert. It takes a minute and gives a figure several times worse than the advertised one.