Superfecta

The superfecta requires the first four home in exact order. In a twelve-runner race there are 11,880 possible combinations, which is why the dividends are so large.

Coverage costs

Horses boxed	Combinations
4	24
5	120
6	360
7	840

Boxing six horses at £1 costs £360. Most superfecta play therefore uses keys and part wheels, for example one horse to win, three candidates for second, and a wider spread for third and fourth.

Many tracks offer a 10-cent superfecta, which makes wider coverage affordable and is the main reason the bet has grown in popularity in American racing.

The takeout

Superfecta takeout typically runs 20% to 26%, the highest of the standard pools.

The bet’s appeal is the payout distribution: most attempts return nothing, a handful return a great deal. This is the same shape as a high-volatility slot or a lottery ticket, and it appeals for the same reason.

The honest framing

Superfectas are sometimes presented as a skill bet, on the basis that identifying four horses in order requires real analysis. That is true, but the takeout is punishing and the variance extreme, a bettor with genuine skill can go a very long time without a return large enough to cover the attempts.

They make most sense as an occasional bet in large fields where the pool contains a lot of uninformed money and you have a clear view on the likely shape of the race. They make least sense as a regular staple, which is how the low unit stakes encourage them to be played.