Definition
Trifecta
Also known as Triactor, Tricast, Treble Forecast
By Abhinav VasudevanReviewed Editorial policy
In short
A trifecta requires the first three finishers in exact order. Payouts are large, the odds against are substantial, and pool takeout on trifectas is among the highest in racing.
A trifecta needs the first three home in the right order. In British bookmaking the equivalent is the tricast, computed by formula rather than pool.
Cost of coverage
A straight trifecta is one combination. Boxing horses covers every possible order between them, and the numbers grow fast:
| Horses boxed | Combinations |
|---|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| 4 | 24 |
| 5 | 60 |
| 6 | 120 |
A five-horse box at £1 a combination costs £60. This is why trifectas are usually played as keys, one horse fixed to win, combined with a handful of others for second and third, rather than fully boxed.
The economics
Trifecta takeout typically runs 20% to 25%. That is higher than the win pool, higher than the exacta, and several times a bookmaker’s margin on a straight win bet.
The offsetting argument, and it is a real one, is that trifecta pools contain a large proportion of casual money selecting on names, numbers and colours. In a pool where most participants are not analysing the race, a bettor who is can overcome even a 22% takeout, which is essentially never possible against a modern sportsbook.
That argument only holds if you genuinely have an opinion about how a race will unfold. Boxing six horses because you are unsure which will win is paying a high takeout for a lottery ticket.
Large fields and carryovers
Trifecta dividends in big-field handicaps can be enormous. Five-figure returns from small stakes are not unusual in races like the Grand National, because so many combinations go unbacked.
Pools that are not won sometimes carry over to the next race, and a carryover meaningfully improves the value of the pool, since the additional money was contributed by previous bettors rather than deducted as takeout.
Common questions
How many combinations in a trifecta box?
Three horses give six, four give twenty-four, five give sixty and six give one hundred and twenty. That is why most trifecta play uses keys, fixing one horse to win and combining a handful of others behind it.
Can trifectas be beaten despite the takeout?
Only if you genuinely have a view on how a race will unfold. Trifecta pools contain a lot of casual money selecting on names and colours, which is the one argument for them. Boxing six horses because you are unsure is not that.